Nov 25, 2024: Our weekly Institutional Insights explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

 explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

Weekly Highlight — Trump's Planned Crypto Advisory Council

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to establish a crypto-friendly administration, which includes forming a new advisory council for the cryptocurrency industry. Major companies like Ripple, Kraken and Circle are vying for positions on this council to influence U.S. digital asset policy.

The council is expected to be based within the White House, likely under the National Economic Council, and will coordinate policies related to cryptocurrencies, advise Congress and help create a national Bitcoin reserve. Industry leaders, including executives from Coinbase and Circle, have expressed interest in joining.

Trump’s transition team is also considering appointing a "crypto tsar" to lead the council. Former CFTC officials, such as Heath Tarbert and Brian Quintenz, are advising on crypto policy as the administration seeks to roll back Biden-era enforcement actions against crypto companies.

While excitement over a pro-crypto administration has contributed to Bitcoin's surge toward $100,000, some consumer groups have raised concerns about the industry shaping its own regulations. 

Weekly Crypto Highlight — Bitcoin Tests $100,000 as ETF Flows Intensify

U.S. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have achieved a significant milestone, accumulating over $30 billion in total net inflows since their inception in January 2024. This surge in investment reflects a growing interest in Bitcoin, as well as a favorable market environment.

The rise in net inflows and trading volume can be attributed to heightened bullish sentiment in the market, particularly following the re-election of former president Donald Trump. His return to the political forefront has sparked optimism among investors, contributing to increased confidence in cryptocurrency investments.

As a result of this influx of capital, the total net asset value of these Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded the $100 billion mark as of Wednesday, Nov 20, 2024. This achievement underscores the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance, and highlights the potential for continued growth in this sector. The strong performance of these funds signals a robust demand for Bitcoin, and could pave the way for further developments in cryptocurrency investment.

Advanced

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Weekly Institutional Insights: Bitcoin Tests $100K as ETF Flows Intensify

What does a strong BTC price mean to the broader Bitcoin ecosystem?

The conversation around the Bitcoin ecosystem has returned as the price of BTC reached another all-time high, over $90,000, for the first time in November 2024. High expectations from a pro-crypto U.S. administration, a fresh easing cycle from the Fed, strong demand for crypto ETFs and institutional adoption could all be driving forces behind BTC's strong performance.

On the other hand, the performance of the Bitcoin ecosystem projects and their related assets was mixed. The 

 of Bitcoin DeFi reached a new high, while the floor price of most ordinal inscriptions didn’t follow BTC's strong momentum.

In this article, we’ll look into what BTC record performance means to the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. The possibility of BTC's strong momentum creates tailwinds for sub-verticals within the ecosystem, and the chance of speeding up the adoption of Bitcoin scaling technologies as interest increases. 

 (DeFi) for Bitcoin could be one of the sectors that benefit from a high BTC price. Bitcoin DeFi is an emerging sector within the Bitcoin ecosystem that aims to leverage Bitcoin's security and infrastructure for DeFi applications. 

 (TVL) of Bitcoin DeFi has reached over $4 billion for the first time as the price of BTC surged to over $90,000. With BTC's price expected to rise further, overall liquidity in the Bitcoin network could increase and more BTC could be locked into DeFi protocols.

Figure 1: TVL of Bitcoin DeFi has reached $4 billion for the first time. Source: DefiLlama

 are some of the popular narratives among Bitcoin DeFi. These related projects are expected to benefit from increased interest, activity and liquidity in the Bitcoin network. For example, some BTC holders could look to generate yield from their idle holdings. BTC's increasing value might encourage some other holders to mint and use BTC-collateralized stablecoins.

The current bullish sentiment may create a positive feedback loop. Rising prices could fuel investors' optimism, driving further investment into the Bitcoin ecosystem and potentially leading to a self-sustaining growth cycle.

If the demand for Bitcoin DeFi is set to increase, the interest in Bitcoin's scaling solutions might also increase. That's because developers could take advantage of the market attention of the world’s leading crypto, as well as some of the recent technology breakthroughs under the hood, to build (

) on Bitcoin. This would especially apply to expanding Bitcoin’s 

 (L2) solutions, allowing the blockchain to handle transactions more efficiently. On top of that, building sophisticated 

Figure 2: TVL of Stacks — a major Bitcoin L2 — recovering from Q2’s decline. Source: DefiLlama

, a Bitcoin L2 that provides smart contract capabilities for the Bitcoin blockchain, might see increased interest. Data from DeFillama shows that Stacks' TVL has been gradually recovering from Q2's decline, and

, its native token, has posted a 20% YTD gain.

In addition, a strong BTC price could benefit BTC-related infrastructure. Projects such as 

, a Bitcoin-based noncustodial wallet that allows users to store and manage assets on Bitcoin, and Nomic, which bridges Bitcoin to the 

 ecosystem, could see growth due to the increased demand for interoperability, allowing Bitcoin to be used in DeFi ecosystems beyond its native network.

Ordinal Inscriptions Struggle to Regain Traction

 were some of the important narratives in the Bitcoin ecosystem in 2023. However, Ordinal inscriptions weren’t immune as the market trend turned sour in Q2 2024. As the price of BTC has rebounded, some of the ordinal inscriptions seem to have struggled to regain traction. Figure 4 shows the floor price of Runestone, which is the third-largest market cap ordinal inscription collection on CoinGecko. It hasn’t seemed able to follow BTC’s recent strong momentum, at least not yet. Although some other collections may have shown some traction recently, its floor price is still quite far from its previous peak.

Figure 3: Total market cap of NFTs on Bitcoin. Source: CoinGecko

Figure 4: Floor price of Runestone over time. Source: CoinGecko

BRC-20 tokens seem to be in a similar situation. For example, 

 have a $1.3 billion combined market cap, and take up over 80% of the total BRC-20 token market cap. They’ve been struggling to follow BTC's uptrend and largely remain in the same trading range that they’ve been in for months, notwithstanding some recent short-term rebound.

Philosophical Difference Could be a Challenge

The future development of the BTC ecosystem could still face multiple challenges — despite all the innovations that have been pushing the boundaries of the oldest blockchain — and community division is a major challenge.

There's still a philosophical debate within the Bitcoin community about whether Ordinal inscriptions and BRC-20 tokens align with Bitcoin's original purpose. While Bitcoin's 

 (or "digital gold") narrative is widely accepted in the community — and has even begun to win buy-in from the mainstream — Ordinal inscriptions and BRC-20 tokens may often be seen as more risky and speculative by nature, especially if they don't offer significant advantages. This contention could pose a challenge for both Ordinal inscriptions and the BRC-20 standard, at least from an investment perspective.

Suppose the market perceives Ordinal inscriptions and BRC-20 tokens as less useful or integrated into financial ecosystems such as BTC. In that case, their value may not be fully realized by the market, and their liquidity might also not be as high as for BTC — meaning price movements could be more volatile and less directly correlated with BTC's price. In that scenario, even a skyrocketing BTC price may not be able to directly benefit the Ordinal inscription space and BRC-20 tokens.

On the other hand, Bitcoin DeFi is painting a relatively rosier picture. Since Ethereum-based DeFi has been around for a long time, the concept is easy to understand and is being tested in the market. Extending that into the Bitcoin blockchain thus seems more digestible. Besides, the demand for staking, restaking, native yield and BTC-backed stablecoins has been increasing in proportion to the price of Bitcoin. At the same time, recent tech innovations seem to cater more to DeFi activities on Bitcoin, rather than improving the user experience of Ordinal inscriptions and BRC-20 tokens. 

The impact of Bitcoin's record-high prices extends far beyond mere numbers on charts. As we've examined throughout this analysis, a rising BTC price could create a cascading effect across the entire Bitcoin ecosystem. However, it's crucial to recognize that sustainable ecosystem growth requires more than just price appreciation. 

While record-high prices certainly attract attention and capital, they must be accompanied by fundamental improvements in scalability, accessibility and user experience. The challenge for the Bitcoin ecosystem will be to harness this increasing momentum to build lasting infrastructure and develop practical applications that extend far beyond speculative trading. 

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Will the Bitcoin Ecosystem Benefit From a Record High BTC Price?

Sui Name Service (SuiNS) enables blockchain users to register human-readable web3 names, ensuring secure, seamless transactions and a user-friendly on-chain identity.

Some people have no trouble remembering new cell phone numbers, and there are even a select few among us who wouldn't find it hard to memorize a 16-digit bank card number. However, very few people would choose to tackle the job of reliably recalling an alphanumeric blockchain address. Network addresses on 

 (ETH) are 42 characters long, while on the 

 (SUI) blockchain they span 66. These complex and length addresses are virtually impossible for most users to remember, and are among the least user-friendly features of 

 networks. Not only are long blockchain addresses distinctly user-unfriendly, but they also lead to many instances of wrongly executed transactions due to incorrectly input characters. 

Sui Name Service (NS), a solution on the Sui blockchain, has been specifically designed to tackle this problem. The service allows users to create human-readable and easy-to-remember web3 names linked to their underlying blockchain addresses. Using SuiNS, you can transact within web3 using your preferred username and, optionally, an avatar, rather than a long, complex blockchain address.

 (NS), or simply SuiNS, is a decentralized naming service that allows you to create and use a human-readable, user-friendly web3 handle to interact with the blockchain environment, instead of using a typical long and complicated network address. 

At the underlying level, your SuiNS name is linked to your blockchain address, but all the interaction and operations on the chain happen via your registered name.

SuiNS was first conceptualized and launched in 2022, inspired by the popular 

 (ENS). In many ways, SuiNS and ENS are similar, the obvious difference being that each one applies to its own respective blockchain environment. In May 2023, SuiNS was introduced on the Sui blockchain's newly launched mainnet. The service was developed and is supported by Mysten Labs, the development studio behind the Sui blockchain project. Since the beginning of the Sui blockchain's conceptualization, SuiNS has been among the core projects of the entire Sui ecosystem. As of late November 2024, SuiNS has managed to achieve the remarkable milestone of having registered nearly 330,000 names.

Using SuiNS, you can register your preferred username (as long as it's not been taken) for one year by paying a registration fee, currently charged in SUI coins. The name can be renewed at expiration for up to five years. All interactions with the blockchain environment through your wallet use your preferred username, rather than your blockchain address.

SuiNS names can be between 3 and 63 characters. Users can check the availability of their preferred handle and register it using the 

, where a lookup textbox is prominently displayed. Shorter names cost more than longer handles. As of the time of this writing (Nov 21, 2024), a three-character-long name costs 500 SUI ($1,785) and a four-character name will cost 100 SUI ($357), while names with five or more characters are priced at 20 SUI ($71.40).

A SuiNS name can only be registered for one year, but it can be renewed for up to four years (excluding the initial registration year). There's a 30-day grace period after the expiration of your SuiNS name, during which you may still renew it. If you don't renew during the grace period, your registered name will be up for grabs by anyone on the market. Optionally, you can buy an NFT avatar linked to your SuiNS name.

 (DApp) ecosystem on the Sui blockchain. Developers can use off-chain remote procedure calls (RPCs) to integrate the Sui service into their application environments. They can also take advantage of the native, on-chain SuiNS SDK to interact with the service.

Thanks to SuiNS, you can enjoy short, comprehensible names for your own address, as well as the addresses of the parties with whom you transact (if they also sign up for the service). No more forgettable string combinations that are hard to read and virtually impossible to remember!

However, a SuiNS name isn't just a tool of convenience. It also represents your decentralized identity on-chain. The identity is fully owned by you, the user, rather than by a centralized entity.

SuiNS minimizes the likelihood of lost assets due to sending funds to the wrong address: short, easy-to-remember names are way less prone to incorrectly executed transactions than standard blockchain addresses.

Security is also among the benefits of SuiNS. The service runs on the Sui chain, which prides itself on developing and enforcing high-grade security standards. Among these are 

, a framework that maintains a list of malicious websites and on-chain assets, thus protecting the Sui ecosystem from 

 launched by these known nefarious entities.

The SuiNS service launched its native token, NS, on Nov 14, 2024. Initially, NS is envisioned to support 

 processes on the platform, and will also be used for purchasing and trading SuiNS names. Currently, names are traded using SUI, the blockchain's native cryptocurrency. It's likely that NS will replace SUI in this capacity in the near future. The project team has also hinted that there could be additional uses for the NS token beyond governance and payment for SuiNS names. More announcements on this issue are likely to follow.

During the initial phase of the token's existence, governance will be its most prominent function. Holders of NS will be able to vote on important issues concerning the protocol's rules and future direction. One NS equals one vote, with more NS tokens giving you a greater say in the overall decision-making process. You can also increase your voting power by locking your NS tokens for from one to 12 months. For every additional month locked, you obtain 10% voting power. To encourage voting, 5% of the NS token's supply has been allocated for governance rewards. NS is a 

 token, with a total and maximum supply set at 500 million. The token's supply distribution shares are per the chart below.

NS is available on Bybit's Spot market as a swap pair with USDT (

). You can also take advantage of Bybit's campaign dedicated to the token to grab a share of the 

. Three campaign events for eligible users run through Nov 27, 2024, 8AM UTC:

Thanks to Sui Name Service, interacting on-chain has become easier and more user-friendly. However, easy-to-remember names aren't the only benefit: advantages also include lower likelihood of lost funds, better security and a completely decentralized, user-owned identity on-chain. So far, around 330,000 names have been registered, and with the impressive suite of benefits, expect this number to grow as we move with SuiNS into 2025.

Intermediate

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Sui Name Service (NS): Your On-Chain Identity Made Simple

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing an influx of speculative trading, particularly with meme coins like DOGE, PEPE and BONK experiencing extraordinary gains. 

November 2024 has marked a significant milestone for Bitcoin, with its price soaring to $94,105. This unprecedented growth has been driven by global events and heightened social media discussions, with predictions of six-figure valuations. Historically, peaks in social media chatter often precede market corrections, signaling traders to exercise caution. Currently, while whale accumulation remains strong — with wallets holding over 10 Bitcoin adding 53,006 more BTC in just one month — retail traders remain surprisingly cautious. This wary sentiment contrasts sharply with the bullish behavior usually seen during price surges, suggesting a potential correction.

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing an influx of speculative trading, particularly with meme coins like DOGE, PEPE and BONK experiencing extraordinary gains. Despite their volatility, these tokens reflect a broader appetite for high-risk investments. Notably, whale investors holding 1M–100M DOGE are accumulating, while smaller holders are selling, creating conditions for potential breakouts. However, if new capital stops flowing, these speculative assets could face significant downturns. Additionally, while discussions around Bitcoin reaching $100K are increasing, they haven’t reached the levels seen earlier this year, indicating that fear of missing out (FOMO) may not yet be fully realized.

Institutional Interest and Ethereum's Resurgence

Demand for Bitcoin ETFs has surged, with daily trading volumes hitting a record $8.21 billion, signaling increased institutional interest. This activity often coincides with market peaks, but could also indicate new investments flowing into the crypto space. Meanwhile, Ethereum has also gained momentum, breaking above $3,100 for the first time in over 14 weeks. Additionally, whale accumulation is on the rise, suggesting that as Bitcoin leads the market, profits may soon be redirected into Ethereum. In contrast, Solana's price movements remain highly sentiment-driven, with funding rates indicating potential entry points for investors. Overall, altcoins are experiencing growth, particularly following the U.S. elections, which have reignited optimism in the crypto market.

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Bitcoin's Resurgence: Analyzing Market Dynamics and Speculative Trends in November 2024

Trading

The ABCD chart pattern is a harmonic pattern which offers excellent risk-to-reward ratio trading opportunities. It consisting of four reversal points and and visually resembles a lightning bolt.

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The ABCD pattern is a popular harmonic formation found in 

 that identifies potential trading opportunities. Over the next few minutes, we’ll review what the pattern is, see how to incorporate it into trading strategies and look at some of its limitations.

The ABCD pattern is a harmonic formation formed on trading charts and used in technical analysis. It consists of four reversal points labeled A, B, C and D. The pattern is simple to understand and visually resembles a lightning bolt.

ABCD patterns are versatile and can be applied to any chart time frame and financial market, such as stocks, currencies, commodities and crypto. Additionally, the pattern boasts specific measurements that must appear for each point, making it a popular choice among traders. When spotted, the pattern can deliver excellent 

The bullish ABCD pattern points downward, and offers traders an opportunity to buy at point D.

The formation of the bullish ABCD pattern is as follows:

: The pattern begins with a significant high point, representing the start of the downward move.

: The price starts to decline from point A. Point B marks the end of this initial decline and the beginning of a partial bounce higher.

: As the temporary rally continues, it will retrace about 50–78% of the AB leg. Point C represents the price where the rally finds resistance and stops.

:From point C, the market experiences another downtrend that pushes below the low price of point B. Point D is the target level at which traders may consider entering a long position, or taking profits in a short position.

On the other hand, the bearish ABCD pattern is an upward formation that suggests a potential downward trend in the market. 

The formation of the bearish ABCD pattern is typically as follows:

: The pattern starts with a significant low point in the market. This represents the beginning of an upward trend.

: Point B marks the end of the upward rally and the beginning of a correction lower.

: Point C will be a higher price than point A, representing a partial retracement of the AB rally, typically about 50–78% of the distance that the upward AB leg has traveled.

: Finally, the price rallies again, surpassing the previous high at point B. Point D is the target level at which traders may consider entering a 

With a little bit of practice, you can easily identify an ABCD chart pattern. It’s often compared to a lightning bolt, due to its distinct shape and symmetry. 

Follow the steps in order to identify this pattern.

First, look for a significant swing high or low that marks the beginning of a trend. This trend will be the first of three consecutive price swings. The beginning of the first trend is point A, while the end of the trend is point B. 

Second, look for a countertrend price movement that only partially retraces the first trend. This second trend will be the smallest trend of the three waves, and is the BC leg.

Lastly, look for the third trend to be the same length as the first trend. The final point of the pattern is at point D, which completes the lightning bolt pattern.

In addition to observing the lightning bolt shape, it’s important to notice symmetry between the lengths of the AB and CD legs in both time and price. This means that the distance and time it takes for the price to move from A to B should be similar to the distance and time it takes to move from C to D. The symmetry adds further confirmation to the pattern.

To increase the effectiveness of trading with the ABCD trading pattern, it's important to follow specific measurements and geometry regarding its shape. Below are some rules to consider.

Point C will always remain above point A in an uptrend, or below point A in a downtrend.

Of the three trends in the pattern, the BC leg will be the shortest.

 and apply it to the AB leg to spot a target zone for point C. The retracement of AB will mean point C should fall within the 0.500 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the initial AB trend. 

The price level of "D" must be either above or below the price level of point B (in the bearish and bullish patterns, respectively). You’ll notice some symmetry will begin to develop as point D exceeds point B.

Once points A, B and C are in place, we can begin to establish target levels for point D. Apply the 

 to points A, B and C. The point D target will rest near 1.000, 1.272 or 1.618 times the length of AB. The most common occurrence is when AB and CD are equal in length (1.000), but the other two ratios are also observed.

By adhering to these rules, traders can improve the accuracy of their ABCD pattern trading and enhance their overall performance. Keep in mind that no trading strategy guarantees success, and 

Drawing ABCD patterns on price charts involves identifying and connecting the four key points, identified above as A, B, C and D. 

These days, charting packages offer a plethora of tools to assist you with drawing. For example, traders will sometimes draw a trend line connecting each of the four points.

, include an ABCD pattern icon. This tool actually calculates how long each of the waves is in comparison to one another.

For example, in the chart above, an ABCD harmonic pattern emerges in September 2021. When we apply the TradingView drawing tool to the chart, it will automatically calculate C’s retracement of leg AB, and determine the extension of D as compared to leg AB.

ABCD chart patterns are versatile, and can be viewed on all financial instruments on all chart time frames where there’s a reasonable amount of liquidity.

There are two main strategies used when trading the ABCD pattern.

With three data points at hand (points A, B and C), we can calculate and estimate the target for point D and anticipate a price reversal.

If the pattern is a bullish ABCD pattern, then a trader can anticipate a bullish reversal and buy at point D. If the pattern is a bearish ABCD, then a trader may look to sell in anticipation of a bearish reversal.

Once the price reaches point D, look for other bullish indications, such as a 

 formation or resistance breaking. In the image above, the price falls, reaching the bearish trajectories of "D". Then, after a successful bullish retest of the price lows, Bitcoin rallies to break above resistance. A trader would look to make their buy entry point on this break and place their 

 below the low of "D". Generally, prices will retrace back to point C, so taking profits at "C" should provide a good risk-to-reward ratio.

If the larger overall trend is expected to continue, then sometimes traders will anticipate the price driving to point D and beyond.

For example, in a bearish ABCD trading pattern, the CD leg is a rally. Once the point C low forms, a trader may buy in anticipation of the price traveling to point D.

In the example above, "C" retraces between 50–61.8% of AB. When the price breaks above the green resistance trend line, a trader can buy and place a stop loss just below the low of point C. We can calculate the targets based on our rules above. The best target is when AB and CD are equal and we can anticipate the 100% extension, which will generally produce a good risk-to-reward ratio.

ABCD patterns have their advantages, as well as some limitations.

:The ABCD trading pattern provides traders with well-defined entry and exit levels, allowing for precise trade execution and risk management.

:The pattern is based on specific price levels and structures, making it relatively objective and rule-based. Traders can apply predefined criteria to identify and validate the pattern.

: After the completion of the pattern, it's common for prices to retrace back to point C. This provides traders with an excellent risk-to-reward ratio when trading the pattern.

: Like any chart pattern in technical analysis, this pattern isn’t foolproof, and can produce false signals. A trader must exercise caution, and incorporate a stop-loss order to protect their account’s capital.

: While the ABCD pattern has defined rules, there can still be subjectivity in identifying the exact points of A, B, C and D. Traders may interpret the pattern differently, leading to variations in trade setups.

: Many traders may face challenges when using the pattern, such as the temptation to chase the market or exit too early. It requires discipline and patience to execute trades according to the pattern's geometry.

The ABCD trading pattern serves as a valuable tool for traders seeking potential trading opportunities. With its clear structure and defined entry and exit points, this pattern offers a rule-based approach to trading. By understanding the pattern's measurements, recognizing its visual resemblance to a lightning bolt and exercising adequate risk management, traders may effectively incorporate it into their trading strategies.

ABCD Pattern: What Is It and How to Trade With It

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