Weekly Institutional Insights: Job market softens; ETF outflows send headwind to crypto

Mar 10, 2025: Our weekly Institutional Insights explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

Weekly highlight — Fed likely to stay put amid softening job market

Source: Bloomberg

US job growth stabilized last month, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 151,000 in February 2025, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. This mixed report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests a softening labor market, with more people out of work permanently, a decline in federal government jobs and a rise in part-time workers due to economic conditions. The number of individuals holding multiple jobs reached nearly 8.9 million.

Concerns about US president Donald Trump's policies have added to the uncertainty, as persistent inflation and reduced consumer spending might lead businesses to reconsider hiring. Economists predict that continued government actions, such as tariff hikes and spending cuts, could have a further impact on job creation.

The advance in hiring was primarily in the healthcare, transportation and financial sectors, but government payrolls saw their weakest growth in nearly a year. The report reflects the initial impacts of Trump’s second term, with significant job cuts anticipated due to federal layoffs.

Additionally, restrictions on immigration may hinder job growth. The labor market participation rate dropped to its lowest in two years, particularly among men, while the number of part-time workers rose to a four-year high, pushing the broader underemployment rate up.

Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3%, but economists warn that layoffs from major companies could lead to a rise in unemployment in the coming months. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, awaiting clearer signs of inflation trends.

Weekly crypto highlight — strategic reserve proposal fails to lift sentiment

De-risking in the crypto derivatives markets persisted following President Trump's proposal to include Bitcoin, Ether and three other tokens in a national strategic crypto reserve. While Trump's announcement briefly boosted crypto prices, it didn’t improve premiums or open interest for Bitcoin futures on the CME. The basis, reflecting the annualized expected return from selling Bitcoin futures while buying spot, experienced a momentary increase, but quickly fell back, indicating that US institutional investors remain cautious.

Perpetual futures, popular among non-US investors seeking leverage, also mirrored this trend, with their funding rate hitting negative levels not seen since September 2024. Trump's announcement did little to enhance sentiment on the CME, as the basis remained in single digits during Bitcoin's brief recovery. It’s noted that Trump's policies continue to disrupt broader financial markets, with crypto failing to act as a safe haven amid global uncertainty.

Source: CoinGlass

Increased liquidations and record outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded products suggest ongoing risk aversion. Even crypto investors, traditionally tolerant of volatility, are opting to stay on the sidelines as they observe the early months of Trump's second term. Although Trump's pro-crypto stance previously propelled Bitcoin to new heights, his recent tariff policies and unpredictable geopolitical maneuvers have unsettled the crypto landscape.

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